What is Your Electoral College Prediction?

by Doug on November 5, 2012

In response to my last post about the statisticians v. the pundits, a commenter said that the pundits were right that the race would be decided by a razor thin margin in the Electoral College.

My prediction is Obama – 303 to Romney 235. (56.3% to 43.7% in the EC).

Link to my map.

Anyone else care to share their predictions? The winner will get a can full of jack squat. You can generate your own map at: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php

{ 14 comments… read them below or add one }

Sheila Kennedy November 5, 2012 at 15:59 +00006

I’ll go out on the proverbial limb, and predict an EV for Obama of 330.

Megan Ramsey November 5, 2012 at 16:27 +00006

Total guess: 294 to 244 Obama. I just want to make sure I get my guess in there on the off chance I get to gloat about my irrelevancy later.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bnah

Doug November 5, 2012 at 17:35 +00006: I was on the fence about Colorado. Looks like we split in opposite directions on that one.

Reply

Carlito Brigante November 5, 2012 at 17:10 +00006

I will take the map as drawn at 303 to 235. And when VA is called Obama, you can hit the sack, hit the champaign, or hit the TV with a thrown laptop or tablet.

Matt Stone November 5, 2012 at 17:15 +00006

277-261 Obama. It all ultimately rests with Ohio.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AsM2ifUiDXE/UJfQu-wqQJI/AAAAAAAAAFE/J-mU3n5MxO4/s320/canvas.png

Obama also crushes Mitt’s chances if he takes and of the trio of NC/VA/FL, but I don’t think that’ll happen.

Mike Kole November 5, 2012 at 18:01 +00006

I cut it 290-219, putting VA & NC for Romney, but everything else Obama.

Doug November 5, 2012 at 18:16 +00006

Missing 29 EVs. Florida to Obama for 319?

Mike Kole November 5, 2012 at 19:18 +00006

Whoops! I have Florida for Romney, so 290-248 Obama.

David November 5, 2012 at 19:25 +00006: I live here and I don’t have much faith in Florida going to Obama.

Reply

jharp November 5, 2012 at 19:19 +00006

Here’s mine. I made it before the debates and will just stay with it. I have it posted a few other spots and don’t want to get into having multiple picks out there.

Obama 332 Romney 206

Senate 54 D 46 R

House 220 R 215 D

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=rlt

Good luck to all.

BAW November 5, 2012 at 20:24 +00006

I’ll go with Larry Sabato’s final post this morning. Obama 290-Romney 248. The Louisville Courier-Journal had an interesting and humorous article in this morning’s paper about a 269/269 tie in the Electoral College.

MarcD November 5, 2012 at 20:43 +00006