IN-03: Souder leads Hayhurst by 12%

A poll by the Fort Wayne News Sentinel shows incumbent Republican Mark Souder leading challenger Tom Hayhurst 52% to 40%. There aren’t any polls to use as comparisons of trends in the race, but it seems to confirm that Hayhurst is running a good campaign but his chances of winning in this heavily Republican district are a long shot. By way of comparison, Souder took 69% of the vote two years ago.


  1. says

    This is a stretch, but keep in mind that a) there’s a 5% margin of error b) there were 8% undecided and c) they polled a grand total of 400 some people.

    We’ll see what happens – I’ll hang onto hope until the end.

  2. says

    I just posted on this poll. My thoughts are that Hayhurst will carry Allen County. It will come down to how well he got his message out in the rural/small town areas.

    An incumbent at 52% is in trouble, and Hayhurst has momentum.

  3. says

    I live up in Bristol, and Tom helped me campaign. Bristol looks like a Democratic stronghold, if judged by voter angst and signs in town. Wouldn’t that be great if he won by the margin up the small towns up north?

    Souder has started nasty automated calls up here. I sure hope he gets beat.

    Dan Watson
    Candidate for Bristol Town Board

  4. says

    According to Mark Souder’s ads, you’d swear that he was running against Nancy Pelosi and not Tom Hayhurst. This race has allowed him to show to the public what kind of slime he really is. His visciousness represents all that is shameful of the Indiana 3rd district and our current Congress in general.

  5. Paul says

    I’d agree that Allen County is Souder’s weak point. Souder is strongest in the newest parts of the third. The sarcastic strain in me would like to suggest that those folks don’t know him as well as those of us in the “older” parts of the district. But I think Souder was given strong Republican areas because he has long been recongized by the Republicans as potentially vulnerable (his big win two years ago was against a particularly weak Democrat).

  6. Kevin says

    This poll is a joke. Four hundred “likely” voters is hardly an appropriate sample for this area.

    Sometimes plain old-fashion observation tells the most interesting story. I’ve noticed an increasing number of yards (mine included) with Hayhurst signs mixed in with those of Republican candidates. I’ve also talked with several moderate Republicans who have decided to vote for Hayhurst because they’re tired of Souder’s juvenile behavior.

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